The country may see a nursing shortage of between 200,000 and 450,000 registered nurses (RNs) by 2025 if healthcare stakeholders and federal leaders do not take action to address the dwindling workforce, according to a report from McKinsey & Company.
McKinsey’s latest data reflects responses from 710 frontline nurses and 156 healthcare professionals providing direct patient care.
Healthcare providers continue to face workforce shortages and operational challenges that were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, patient demand will rise in the coming years due to the country’s growing and aging population.
Researchers estimated that the US will have a 10 to 20 percent nursing gap by 2025 as the number of patients needing care exceeds the number of nurses. The RN supply could potentially see a low of 2.4 million, while the RN demand could be a low of 2.8 million nurses.
The country will have to more than double the number of new graduates entering and staying in the nursing workforce every year for the next three years to meet this demand, according to McKinsey.
Between 2017 and 2021, the RN turnover rate increased from 17 percent to 26 percent. According to separate data from McKinsey, 29 percent of RNs reported that they were likely to leave direct patient care as of March 2022. Among those RNs, 15 percent intended to leave the workforce altogether.
The rate of new nurses coupled with the retirement rate will likely be a substantial driving factor behind the nursing shortage, the report emphasized.
Between 2016 and 2019, new registered nursing licenses grew by 4 percent each year. The growth rate in 2020 was only about 1 percent due to the pandemic.
The country is expected to see a 1 to 12 percent increase in inpatient hospitalization days in 2025, according to the report.
The report suggests that the federal and state governments should also take action to help address the projected nursing shortage. For example, public officials could launch educational campaigns that highlight the benefits of nursing. Governments could also develop financial incentives for current and prospective nurses, such as tuition reimbursement, student loan forgiveness, or additional financial support, the report concluded.
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